Are Minnows Toppling Giants More Often? The Data
Winning Score Team Published Sat 13 Jun Updated Sat 13 Jun
The World Cup is no longer the preserve of five or six giants — at least, the numbers are starting to say so.
At Qatar 2022, in matches between teams 20-plus FIFA places apart, the lower-ranked side won 1 in 4 — almost three times the 9% rate of 2014 (RTE Sport).
“Underdog” is changing meaning. But before you buy it whole, the numbers have their own traps.
The short version (20 seconds)
- WC 2022: underdogs (20+ places apart) won 25%, up from 9% in 2014
- Average points gap, top-20 vs the rest, fell from 1.25 (1998) to 0.40 (2022)
- Biggest measured shock ever: Saudi Arabia 2-1 Argentina (8.7% pre-match)
- The 48-team format helps minnows qualify — but the knockouts still favour the powers
The numbers that challenge the assumption
The strongest figure isn’t the count of shocks — it’s the points gap between top-20 and lower-ranked teams in the group stage:
| World Cup | Avg points gap per game (top-20 vs rest) |
|---|---|
| 1998 | 1.25 |
| 2022 | 0.40 |
From 1.25 to 0.40 in 24 years — results on the pitch really are tighter (RTE Sport), and Statista counted 15 upsets in 2022, more than any prior edition (Statista).
A caution: a World Cup has only ~64 matches, and only about 8-12 pit the 20+-place gap each time. So 25% looks dramatic but isn’t statistically conclusive — and FIFA has no official definition of an “upset” at all.
The 5 biggest shocks (by FIFA-ranking gap)
| Match | WC | Score | Underdog (winner) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia vs Argentina | 2022 | 2-1 | Saudi (51) vs Argentina (3) | 48 places |
| South Korea vs Germany | 2018 | 2-0 | Korea (57) vs Germany (1) | 56 places |
| Senegal vs France | 2002 | 1-0 | Senegal (42) vs France (1) | 41 places |
| Japan vs Germany | 2022 | 2-1 | Japan (24) vs Germany (12) | 12 places |
| Morocco vs Portugal (QF) | 2022 | 1-0 | Morocco (22) vs Portugal (9) | 13 places |
(Pre-tournament FIFA rankings.) Nielsen Gracenote rated Saudi Arabia’s win the greatest shock in history — an 8.7% pre-match win probability (RTE/Gracenote).
More telling than any single shock was Morocco’s run in 2022 — ranked 22nd, yet they knocked out Belgium, Spain and Portugal to reach the semi-finals, the first African nation ever to do so.
Why the gap is closing
The factor the data backs most clearly: players from smaller nations now play in Europe’s big leagues.
At WC 2022, 50.3% of all players were at top-5 league clubs (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1), and around 87% of African players played outside their own confederation, mostly in Europe (CIES/FIFA).
In plain terms: a minnow’s players now train and compete against world-class opponents every week. By the time they meet at a World Cup, the gap in match-sharpness is far smaller than it used to be — South Korea had Son Heung-min (Spurs); Morocco fielded a near-entirely Europe-based XI.
Will the 48-team World Cup open the door wider?
Half yes — the other half needs a longer look.
Where it genuinely helps — in 2026, 32 of 48 teams advance from the groups (66.7%) versus 50% in 2022, third place can now qualify (8 best third-placed teams), and 21 teams are ranked outside the top 30 versus about 9 in 2022 (USA Today/FIFA). Four nations debut (Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, Uzbekistan) — Curaçao the smallest ever to qualify.
Where it still favours the powers — many see the new format as “two tournaments stacked”: a minnow-friendly group phase, then a longer knockout bracket (the new Round of 32) that rewards squad depth, where big nations have the edge (Guardian Nigeria).
And the easier qualification bar (66.7%) may push the giants to play it safe and protect leads — fewer open games, which is often when upsets happen.
The takeaway — the gap is closing, not gone
The numbers all lean the same way: minnows are more competitive, driven by players raised in big leagues, not luck. But the samples are small, and the 48-team format opens the group-stage door more than it guarantees a deep run.
Want to spot this year’s next Morocco?
- Scan every nation’s ranking and form on the teams page — 21 sit outside the top 30 this year.
- Follow the group standings for which groups smell like a shock.
- To see why third place can survive, read the 48-team format explained.
The numbers don’t lie — but they don’t guarantee anything either. Which is exactly why the World Cup is still worth watching.
Sources
- Stats suggest Qatar is a World Cup of shocks — RTE Sport (3 Dec 2022) — RTE Sport, 2022
- Saudi Arabia over Argentina = greatest shock in WC history (8.7%) — RTE/Gracenote — RTE / Nielsen Gracenote, 2022
- WC 2022 had more upsets than any other (15) — Statista — Statista, 2022
- 50.3% of WC 2022 players were at top-5 league clubs — CIES/FIFA Training Centre — CIES / FIFA, 2022
- Every 2026 World Cup team by FIFA ranking — USA Today — USA Today / FIFA, 2026
- Does the 48-team format favour smaller nations? — Guardian Nigeria (3 Mar 2026) — Guardian Nigeria, 2026
FAQ
- Are minnows really beating giants more often?
- The numbers point that way. At WC 2022, in matches where teams were 20+ FIFA places apart, the lower-ranked side won 1 in 4 (25%) — versus 9% in 2014 — and the average points gap between top-20 and lower-ranked teams fell from 1.25 (1998) to 0.40 (2022). But the samples are small and not statistically conclusive.
- What's the biggest shock in World Cup history?
- Saudi Arabia 2-1 Argentina (2022) — Nielsen Gracenote gave Saudi Arabia just an 8.7% pre-match win probability, the biggest measured upset ever, followed by South Korea 2-0 Germany (2018) and Senegal 1-0 France (2002).
- Why are smaller nations more competitive?
- The clearest driver is that their players now play in Europe's big leagues — at WC 2022, 50.3% of players were at top-5 league clubs and around 87% of African players played outside their own confederation, narrowing the gap in match sharpness.
- Does the 48-team format help smaller nations?
- It helps them qualify and advance — 32 of 48 teams now reach the knockouts (66.7%), third place can go through, and 21 teams are ranked outside the top 30 (vs ~9 in 2022). But many argue the longer knockout bracket still favours the powers.
- Which nations debut at the 2026 World Cup?
- Four — Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. Curaçao is described as the smallest nation ever to qualify for a World Cup finals.
